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Computing Rates of Return

by Victor T. Norton, Jr., Ph.D. - Mathematics



This paper describes how to calculate the rate of return of a mutual fund or a portfolio of mutual funds with the aid of a spread sheet.

First we consider the short term situation. Here the period is a quarter or a year, and simple interest computations are appropriate. The "method of adjusted beginnings" resolves the problem of intermediate transactions.

Then we consider a longer term. There is no closed formula to compute the compound rate corresponding to a series of transactions over an extended period of time. Nevertheless a method of "successive approximations" serves to compute the rate as accurately as desired.

The examples discussed are computed in the Microsoft Excel workbooks referenced below. You may need to twiddle with the columns a little. The widths are perfect for my Mac; they may leave something to be desired on PCs.



A Simple Example

Here is the data pertinent to calculating the quarterly returns for a portfolio of mutual funds. We assume that no external transactions have taken place during the quarter. (An external transaction occurs when money is invested in or withdrawn from the portfolio. Reinvested dividends and capital gains are strictly internal and have no direct bearing on return calculations.)

PERIOD TABLE
Beginning Date 01/01/96
End Date 03/31/96

TERMINAL AMOUNT TABLE
Fund Beginning
Amount
End
Amount
Astor Growth 20,000.00 22,121.12
Bedford Fund 30,000.00 28,372.56
Canton Income 20,000.00 21,172.82
Delf Cap Apprec 15,000.00 18,524.18
Excel Gr & Inc 35,000.00 38,714.22
     
Portfolio 120,000.00 128,904.90

The (simple, quarterly interest) returns for the above portfolio may be calculated by means of the formula
   rate of return = change in value / beginning amount
applied to each individual fund and the portfolio as a whole.

The following rate table summarizes the computations. The "percent of portfolio" column lists the proportions of the funds making up the portfolio at the beginning of the quarter, rounded to the nearest percent.

RATE OF RETURN TABLE
Fund Beginning
Amount
Pct of
Portfolio
Change
in Value
Rate of
Return
Astor Growth 20,000.00 17% +2,121.12 +10.6%
Bedford Fund 30,000.00 25% -1,627.44 -5.4%
Canton Income 20,000.00 17% +1,172.82 +5.9%
Delf Cap Apprec 15,000.00 13% +3,524.18 +23.5%
Excel Gr & Inc 35,000.00 29% +3,714.22 +10.6%
         
Portfolio 120,000.00 100% +8,904.90 +7.4%

This Rate Of Return Table is exactly what we are looking for. With certain reinterpretations the same rate table can describe the general situation, where any number of external transactions occur during the quarter.


A More General Example

Now we consider the general case, when external transactions are involved. The data needed for complete return computations are

Here is an example.

PERIOD TABLE
Beginning Date 01/01/96
End Date 03/31/96

TERMINAL AMOUNT TABLE
Fund Beginning
Amount
End
Amount
Astor Growth 20,000.00 22,121.12
Bedford Fund 30,000.00 0.00
Canton Income 20,000.00 27,360.56
Delf Cap Apprec 15,000.00 28,803.67
Excel Gr & Inc 35,000.00 38,714.22
Fiducial Fund 0.00 20,322.18
     
Portfolio 120,000.00 137,321.75

TRANSACTION TABLE
Fund Transaction
Date
Transaction
Amount
Proportion of
Time Left
Adjusted Trans
Amount
Bedford Fund 02/15/96 -28,973.18 0.495 -14,341.72
Canton Income 01/26/96 +2,000.00 0.714 +1,428.00
Canton Income 02/23/96 +2,000.00 0.407 +814.00
Canton Income 03/29/96 +2,000.00 0.022 +44.00
Delf Cap Apprec 02/22/96 +10,000.00 0.418 +4,180.00
Fiducial Fund 02/26/96 +20,000.00 0.374 +7,480.00
         
Portfolio   +7,026.82   -395.72

The first three columns of the Transaction Table record the transactions during the quarter. Positive amounts correspond to purchases, negative amounts to redemptions. The last two columns of the Transaction Table and the following Rate Of Return Table will be discussed in the next two sections.

Here is the Rate Of Return Table corresponding to the above data:

RATE OF RETURN TABLE
Fund Adjusted
Beginning
Pct of
Portfolio
Net Change
in Value
Rate of
Return
Astor Growth 20,000.00 17% +2,121.12 +10.6%
Bedford Fund 15,658.28 13% -1,026.82 -6.6%
Canton Income 22,286.00 19% +1,360.56 +6.1%
Delf Cap Apprec 19,180.00 16% +3,803.67 +19.8%
Excel Gr & Inc 35,000.00 29% +3,714.22 +10.6%
Fiducial Fund 7,480.00 6% +322.18 +4.3%
         
Portfolio 119,604.28 100% +10,294.93 +8.6%


The Method of Adjusted Beginnings - Formulas

The Method of Adjusted Beginnings is a method of computing simple interest rates of return over a given period. This method can be described by the following formulas:

ADJUSTED BEGINNINGS FORMULAS
days in period = end date - beginning date + 1
days left = end date - transaction date
proportion of time left = days left / days in period
adjusted transaction amount = transaction amount * proportion of time left
net change in value = end amount - ( beginning amount + transaction amounts )
adjusted beginning amount = beginning amount + adjusted transaction amounts
rate of return = net change in value / adjusted beginning amount

The Rate Of Return Table for the general example was generated by the Method of Adjusted Beginnings. The percent of the portfolio occupied by an individual fund is the percent taken up by its adjusted beginning.


The Method of Adjusted Beginnings - A Heuristic Explanation

Consider Delf Capital Appreciation. The change in value of Delf during the quarter was  28,803.67 - 15,000.00 = $13,803.67 (Terminal Amount Table). However, $10,000 worth of shares was purchased in the middle of the period, on 2/22/96 (Transaction Table). Consequently, the "net change in value," the change attributable to the earning of "interest," was only  13,803.67 - 10,000 = $3,803.67. This net change is precisely the amount given by the formula
   net change in value = end amount - ( beginning amount + transaction amounts )

Now let us examine precisely how Delf Capital Appreciation earned interest during the quarter. The beginning amount, $15,000, clearly earned interest throughout the period. However, the $10,000 invested on February 22 only earned interest from February 23 until the end of the quarter, for only 38 of the 91 days in the quarter. The ratio 38/91 = 0.418 (rounded to three places) is the "proportion of time left," the proportion of the quarter over which the $10,000 actually earned interest.

From the simple interest standpoint the above situation is equivalent to having
  15,000 + 10,000 * 0.418 = 15,000 + 4,180 = $19,180.00
invested throughout the period. That is to say, at a given rate of simple interest the initial $15,000 and the $10,000 invested on February 22 would earn the same amount as an initial $19,180.00 with no further investments during the quarter. The "adjusted beginning amount," $19,180.00, is given by the formula
   adjusted beginning amount = beginning amount + adjusted transaction amounts
where
   adjusted transaction amount = transaction amount * proportion of time left

In view of the above equivalence, the quarterly rate of return on Delf Capital Appreciation, namely 19.8%, must be given by
   rate of return = net change in value / adjusted beginning amount

There is nothing special about Delf Capital Appreciation, of course. The quarterly rates of return for each of the other funds and the portfolio as a whole are calculated the same way.


Simple and Compound Interest

The Method of Adjusted Beginnings is a method for computing simple interest rates of return for a full period. When there are no intermediate, external transactions, such a rate of return measures the percentage growth during the period. This is not the case when there are intermediate transactions. For example, an amount invested mid-period that grows 10% by the end the period has a 20% rate of return.

In the above examples we have taken one quarter as a sample period. Quarterly rates can be annualized by multiplying by four. In most cases this just confuses the issue. The fact that a fund or a portfolio grows at a 10% quarterly rate during an individual quarter does not generally imply that it will grow at a 40% annual rate over a year.

The Method of Adjusted Beginnings is appropriate for computing annual rates over a period of one year. The method can be implemented on a spread sheet very easily. Date arithmetic should be used to calculate the proportions of time left.

Simple interest calculations are inappropriate for periods of longer than one year. To complete this paper we will give an example of how to compute the annual rate of interest, continuously compounded, for data spanning several years. These computations can be easily implemented on a spread sheet as well.


A Long Term, Compound Interest Example

The table below is a combination Transaction and Rate of Return Table for a single fund over a four year period. The first three columns give all relevant data: the dates, the beginning and end values, and the external transactions in between. For convenience we think of the beginning and end values as transactions. The beginning amount is deposited the day before the period begins. The end amount is withdrawn after the close of the last day of the four year period. Deposits (purchases) are signed positively; withdrawals (sales) are signed negatively.

The fourth column shows the number of years (rounded to three decimal places) from the date of a transaction until the end of the period under consideration, 12/31/95. This column has been computed with the formula
   years left = ( end date - transaction date ) / 365.25
using date arithmetic. For example there are
   [12/31/95] - [5/17/93] = 958 days left
or
   958 days / 365.25 days per year = 2.623 years left (rounded to three places)
after the 5/17/93 purchase.

The last two columns show the annual rates of interest, compound and simple, and the corresponding growth of each transaction during the period. The compound growth of an amount is defined to be
   compound growth = amount * EXP( rate * years left )
The simple growth is given by
   simple growth = amount * ( 1 + rate * years left )
The last two columns were generated with these formulas. Though simple interest computations are not really appropriate over this long a period, we have included the simple growth column for comparison purposes.

Here is the table:


TRANSACTION
AND
RATE OF RETURN TABLE
Compound
Annual
Rate
Simple
Annual
Rate
16.7% 23.6%
Date Transaction Amount Years
Left
Compound
Growth
Simple
Growth
12/31/91 Beginning Value 21,327.52 4.000 41,595.76 41,460.70
05/17/93 Purchase 10,000.00 2.623 15,496.68 16,190.28
06/13/94 Redemption -15,000.00 1.550 -19,431.59 -20,487.00
02/13/95 Purchase 10,000.00 0.879 11,581.14 12,074.44
12/31/95 End Value -49,208.62 0.000 -49,208.62 -49,208.62
           
  Totals  -22,881.10   +33.37 +29.80


Successive Approximations

How do you read above table? Look at the compound growth column. Under an annual interest rate of 16.7% the transactions prior to the end date grow to an amount that is $33.37 more than the end amount, $49,208.62. This is the significance of the compound growth total, +33.37. A compound growth total of 0.00 would indicate an exact match--the prior transactions grow to exactly the end amount.

Since 16.7% produces growth that is $33.37 too much for the end amount, the exact growth rate must be less than 16.7%. However, when we plug in a compound rate of 16.6%, the growth total becomes -153.35. The prior transactions fall $153.35 short of explaining the end amount. It follows that the exact compound growth rate is between 16.6% and 16.7%, and closer to the latter.

The compound annual rate of return must be obtained by successive approximations. There is no closed formula that will give you this number. Fortunately it is not a difficult matter to get a good approximation (16.7% is accurate to this many places) once the growth formulas are in place on a spread sheet. You start with a guess like 10% and see that the growth total is around -11,000; $11,000 short. You increase the rate to 15%, and now you are only $3,000 short. 17% gives a growth total of almost +600; $600 too much. And so it goes. By experimenting in this way you find that 16.7% is the best three digit approximation of the exact rate. (Indeed, the exact rate, 16.682...%, has no more meaning than the approximation, 16.7%, for this kind of application.)

You can get the simple rate of return by the same method of successive approximations. There is a closed formula for the simple rate, however. It reads
   rate of return = net change in value / sum of time-weighted amounts
This simple rate formula can be viewed as a generalization of the Method of Adjusted Beginnings. The "net change in value" is the negative of the transaction amount total, +$22,881.10 in the above example. The product of a transaction amount and the years left gives the corresponding "time-weighted amount." The sum of time-weighted amounts in the example is 97,080.08. Thus the simple rate is
   22,881.10 / 97,080.08 = 23.6%
to three digit accuracy.


Conclusion

How to determine rates of return is a mystery to many investors. When a beginning amount grows to so much at the end of a period, the problem is somewhat tractable. However, when intermediate investments and redemptions confuse the issue, most investors just throw up their hands.

In this paper we have tried to remedy the situation. We show how rates of return can be calculated in the most general situations with the help of a spread sheet.




Last modified: 17-Dec-96
Vic Norton -